Mapping the Ripple Effects of Policy Change

Australia's lawmakers recently passed a law banning social media use for children under 16. The new law comes into effect on 10 December, after which social media companies will be required to verify users' ages. No-one is quite sure how that's going to work, and some aren't even sure if the law applies to them.

The UK recently implemented a similar ban, requiring age checks to access a wide range of sites, including those with adult content. It's led to a massive spike in VPN usage (as kids avoid the checks by pretending to be in another country) and an overwhelming number of age checks that regulators are struggling to audit.

Online safety for children is a huge issue, and whilst these policies are entirely well-intended and will go some (potentially large) way towards protecting children online, their ripple effects are hard to predict—or at the very least, hard to control.

In Australia, recent work we've been conducting with youth organisations provides just one example of a policy ripple effect.

Many community and youth organisations use social media to reach young people, and with a ban in place, they're rethinking their entire marketing strategies. Some have started posting letters again.

Did policymakers consider not-for-profit marketing and outreach strategies when putting the ban in place? Almost certainly not, and maybe they shouldn't (or couldn't). But this is just one example of how policy ripples can lead to unintended consequences.

Children may be exposed to less harmful material with the new law, but everyone's going to have to learn new ways of communicating.

In our work, we use systems mapping to help policymakers visualise the ripple effects of their decisions before implementation. This month's case study explores how we applied this approach to energy security—and we'll soon be sharing insights from our youth sector work, where these unexpected consequences are particularly stark.